June 23 , 2022 — In accordance with TrendForce knowledge, international wafer foundry capability will improve by roughly 14% yearly in 2022. Since increasing 8-inch capability isn’t cost-effective and its development price is far decrease than the general business common, 8-inch capability will develop roughly 6% yearly, whereas 12-inch capability will develop 18% yearly. Of this new capability, roughly 65% of latest 12-inch capability shall be in mature processes (28nm and above) with an annual development price of 20%. It’s apparent that in 2022, most wafer foundries will deal with 12-inch wafer manufacturing capability, with the primary driving power behind manufacturing growth coming from TSMC, UMC, SMIC, HuaHong Group’s HHGrace, and Nexchip.
Because the latest growth actions of course of nodes above 28nm deal with the diversified growth of specialty processes, TrendForce has analyzed the latest developments of those specialty processes based mostly on merchandise similar to Energy-related, MCU, and AMOLED driver ICs. First, energy semiconductors will be roughly divided into two classes: energy discrete and energy IC. Energy discrete, with energy transistors similar to MOSFET and IGBT as mainstream merchandise, is affected by 5G infrastructure, shopper quick charging, automotive electronics, and electrical autos the place the consumption of energy parts per unit of product has elevated and demand has grown quickly. The general market has lengthy been dominated by worldwide IDMs, similar to Infineon, On Semi, and STM. World IDMs account for roughly 80~90% of the market whereas fabless corporations account for roughly 10~20%. When it comes to foundries, along with growing demand from present fabless prospects, because of the comparatively conservative growth technique of IDMs’ personal factories lately, capability shortages have been commonplace and IDMs have additionally successively outsourced merchandise to foundries. HHGrace’s energy discrete income scale in 2021 was the best within the pure-play foundry subject with the regular launch of latest 12-inch capability in Wuxi to perpetuate income efficiency. PSMC and Vanguard have additionally not too long ago elevated their 8-inch capability to undertake associated orders.
When it comes to PMIC, BCD (Bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) platform know-how has largely been adopted at this stage and mainstream manufacturing is carried out on the 8-inch 0.18-0.11µm nodes. Benefiting from upgraded technical specs for 5G smartphones, knowledge facilities, and electrical autos, demand for PMICs has spiked lately. Nonetheless, as a result of restricted development in 8-inch manufacturing capability and the necessity to replace peripheral ICs in response to the discharge of a brand new technology of SoCs, every foundry has additionally successively assisted purchasers in migrating sure PMICs to 12-inch manufacturing. The plan is emigrate these PMICs to the 90/55nm nodes, specializing in functions similar to smartphones and servers. TSMC, UMC, PSMC, HHGrace, and SMIC, all have such plans.
The eNVM (embedded Non-Unstable Reminiscence) course of possesses comparatively diversified know-how and eFlash is presently its mainstream course of. As well as, eNVM course of functions are largely utilized in good playing cards and MCUs. An MCU has a variety of makes use of. For instance, industrial/automotive and shopper electronics similar to info communication merchandise, house home equipment, and IoT merchandise requiring easy purposeful instructions to various complicated functions, will use MCU parts. As well as, embedded reminiscence know-how for MCU will even differ based mostly on slight variations in performance. Though the demand for shopper MCUs is comparatively flat as a result of weak market situations, MCU stocking momentum to fulfill automotive and industrial tools demand remains to be robust, resulting in a relative scarcity of MCUs within the presently market. As well as, IDMs have been more and more outsourcing orders pushed by the short-term penalties of the pandemic on the provision chain and the associated fee elements of MCU merchandise transferring to extra superior course of nodes within the medium and long run, particularly as the price of increasing processes under 40nm (inclusive) has elevated considerably. This, in flip, stimulates the MCU utility growth and deployment of wafer foundries. With an earlier mass manufacturing for processes under 40nm (inclusive) and course of maturity, Taiwan’s foundries have additionally accepted orders from IDMs, whereas the know-how utilized by SMIC and HHGrace lag by roughly one technology, although HHGrace possesses the best manufacturing capability amongst Chinese language foundries.
HV (Excessive Voltage) course of know-how is especially used within the manufacturing of show driver ICs. At current, the mainstream consists of the manufacturing of huge/small measurement driver ICs on the 8-inch 0.18-0.11um course of nodes, the manufacturing of TDDI at 12-inch 65/55nm, and the manufacturing of smartphone AMOLED driver ICs at 40/28nm. For the reason that starting of 2022, smartphone and shopper electronics market situations have continued to be sluggish, balancing the provision of large-size driver ICs and TDDI. Nonetheless, for the reason that total penetration price of AMOLED in cellphones remains to be rising steadily, continued development momentum is forecast within the medium and long run for AMOLED driver ICs. Samsung, TSMC, UMC, and SMIC all have plans to develop 28nmHV. The method know-how of remaining gamers together with HHGrace or Nexchip stay dominated by the 65/55nm nodes they usually have but to have the ability to mass produce AMOLED driver ICs.
Mature processes are estimated to account for practically 75~80% of manufacturing capability within the subsequent three years
In accordance with TrendForce investigations, the compound annual development price of worldwide foundry capability will attain 11% from the interval of 2021-2024, of which 28nm capability in 2024 will attain 1.3 occasions that of 2022, probably the most energetic course of node for mature course of growth. Extra specialty course of functions are anticipated to be migrated to 28nm and the worldwide manufacturing capability of mature processes above 28nm (inclusive) will stably keep a 75-80% proportion of total manufacturing capability from 2021 to 2024, displaying the market potential and significance of making specialty mature processes.
On the identical time, TrendForce signifies, because of the influence of the pandemic on the worldwide provide chain and geopolitics, regional “short-chain manufacturing” and provide chain autonomy have change into key issues for foundry growth. For instance, with a view to ally with regional manufacturing and enhance the flexibleness of capability scheduling, Taiwanese foundries have corresponding growth plans in the USA, Japan, China, and Singapore. Apart from TSMC’s U.S. fab, which focuses on superior processes, remaining growth plans deal with specialty course of applied sciences. As well as, latest growth actions clearly present that foundries in mainland China are actively increasing mature course of know-how and capability. These firms are allocating the manufacturing of key peripheral ICs similar to HV, MCU, PMIC, and energy discrete, with a view to improve the autonomy of their provide chains and meet the wants of the home car, shopper electronics, and data and communication industries.