Chinese language foundries forecast to proceed to carry lower than 10% of the overall foundry market.
March 9, 2022 – IC Insights’ forecast for the foundry market by 2026 was a part of its not too long ago launched 1Q Replace to the 2022 McClean Report. The Replace additionally included analyses of the top-25 2021 semiconductor suppliers, semiconductor trade capital spending, IC trade capability, the automotive IC market, and detailed forecasts for the DRAM, flash, MCU, MPU, and analog IC product segments. Determine 1 reveals the worldwide complete (pure-play and IDM) foundry market forecast from 2016 by 2022.
After dropping 2% in 2019, the foundry market logged a powerful 21% rebound in 2020 as utility processor and different telecomm machine gross sales into 5G smartphones acted as sturdy drivers. The foundry market continued its development surge in 2021, registering a 26% leap. If IC Insights’ 20% enhance now forecast for the foundry market in 2022 involves fruition, the 2020-2022 timeperiod would mark the strongest three-year development span for the overall foundry market since 2002-2004.
Earlier than 2019, the foundry market final declined in 2009 (-11%). IC Insights doesn’t anticipate one other pure-play foundry market decline over the following 5 years. It’s fascinating to notice that previously 18 years (2004-2021), the pure-play foundry market grew 9% or much less in 9 of these years and by double-digit charges within the different 9 years (40% in 2004, 20% in 2006, 43% in 2010, 16% in 2012, 14% in 2013, 13% in 2014, 11% in 2016, 21% in 2020, and 26% in 2021). It seems that, over the previous 18 years, it has been both growth or bust (or not less than average development) for the IC foundry market.
Chinese language Corporations’ Share of the Foundry Market
9 of the top-12 foundries in 2021 had been primarily based within the Asia-Pacific area. Europe-headquartered specialty foundry X-Fab, Israel-based Tower (now anticipated to be acquired by Intel), and U.S.-headquartered GlobalFoundries had been the one non-Asia-Pacific corporations within the top-12 rating final yr.
In 2020, a 25% enhance in gross sales by SMIC was not sufficient to stop a decline of the Chinese language foundries’ share of the overall pure-play foundry market to 7.6% (Determine 2). In 2021, SMIC’s gross sales jumped by 39% as in comparison with a complete foundry market enhance of 26%. Furthermore, Huahong Group noticed its gross sales development price final yr enhance at twice the speed as the overall foundry market (52% for Huahong Group as in comparison with 26% for the overall foundry market). Consequently, the Chinese language firm share of the pure-play foundry market elevated by 0.9 factors to eight.5% in 2021.
IC Insights believes that the overall Chinese language firm share of the pure-play foundry market will stay comparatively flat over by 2026. Though the China-based foundries plan to make the most of the large quantity of presidency and personal funding that will probably be flowing into the Chinese language semiconductor market infrastructure over the following 5 years (which turned evident with the large leap in SMIC’s capex outlays in 2020), it’s unlikely they’ll have the ability to compete for modern foundry enterprise, particularly contemplating that SMIC was positioned on the Entity Checklist by the U.S. Mixed, the Chinese language foundries are forecast to carry 8.8% of the pure-play foundry market in 2026, a stage that will be 2.6 factors lower than their peak share of 11.4% in 2006.
Report Particulars: The 2022 McClean Report
The McClean Report—A Full Evaluation and Forecast of the Semiconductor Business, is now accessible. A subscription to The McClean Report service contains the January Semiconductor Business Flash Report, which gives shoppers with IC Insights’ preliminary overview and forecast of the semiconductor trade for this yr by 2026. As well as, the primary of 4 Quarterly Updates to the report was launched on February twenty fourth, with extra Quarterly Updates to be launched in Could, August, and November of this yr. A person consumer license to the 2022 version of The McClean Report is obtainable for $5,390 and a multi-user worldwide company license is obtainable for $8,590. The Web entry password and the data accessible to obtain will probably be accessible by November 2022.