August 4, 2022 — In accordance with TrendForce analysis, Intel plans to outsource the tGPU chipset in Meteor Lake to TSMC for manufacture. Mass manufacturing of this product was initially deliberate for 2H22 however was later postponed to 1H23 attributable to product design and course of verification points. Just lately, the product’s mass manufacturing schedule has been postponed once more to the tip of 2023 for some purpose, nigh fully cancelling 3nm manufacturing capability initially booked in 2023 with solely a marginal quantity of wafer enter remaining for engineering verification.
TrendForce signifies that this incident has vastly affected TSMC’s manufacturing enlargement plan, leading to Apple being the one firm among the many first wave of 3nm course of shoppers from 2H22 to the beginning 2023 with merchandise together with M sequence chips and A17 Bionic. In view of this, TSMC has determined to sluggish the progress of its manufacturing enlargement to make sure manufacturing capability just isn’t excessively idle, resulting in large price amortization strain. Along with formally notifying tools suppliers of the corporate’s intention to regulate 2023 tools orders, as a result of excessive price of 3nm enlargement, TrendForce expects that this transfer can even have an effect on some elements of TSMC’s 2023 CapEx planning. Consequently, the size of TSMC’s CapEx in 2023 could also be decrease than in 2022.
It’s value mentioning, though Intel has considerably adjusted its 2023 outsourcing plan, inflicting TSMC to postpone its 2023 enlargement plans, different superior course of shoppers together with AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm, all of those corporations successively plan to mass-produce 3nm merchandise in 2024. On the similar time, Apple’s new 2024 iPhone is predicted to completely undertake 3nm processors. The introduction of the aforementioned shoppers will inject momentum into TSMC’s 3nm capability utilization and income efficiency in 2024.
TrendForce believes, though TSMC has determined to curb its CapEx in 2023 as a result of delay of Intel merchandise, TSMC’s annual income will nonetheless develop in contrast with 2022 however at a slower charge. The discount in CapEx can even relieve TSMC’s big price amortization strain and scale back the diploma of gross revenue dilution within the early stage of 3nm mass manufacturing.
Wanting ahead to 2024, with new merchandise from shoppers reminiscent of AMD, MediaTek, and Qualcomm in place, 3nm course of output is predicted to be on observe, additional selling robust development in TSMC’s income scale. Nevertheless, the event standing of Intel’s personal Intel 4 course of and the accompanying outsourcing state of affairs are nonetheless necessary potential development drivers for TSMC. If Intel 4 fails to mass-produce as scheduled, Intel could outsource its computing tiles to TSMC, strongly driving development in 2024. Nevertheless, if the Intel course of develops easily, there stays the potential of the corporate selecting to fabricate associated merchandise itself and canceling TSMC’s orders.
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